The Last Time the Braves Were This Vulnerable, They Won it All (2024)

In 2021, the Atlanta Braves held a 51-54 record at the trade deadline, sitting 5.0 games back of the NL East-leading New York Mets and 9.0 games back of the San Diego Padres for the second Wild Card spot.

Coming off a trip to the 2020 NLCS, things hadn’t panned out the way those Braves expected.

Ronald Acuña Jr. tore his ACL in early July, 2019 Cy Young candidate Michael Soroka suffered a second torn Achilles while working back from a first tear, and stars Dansby Swanson and Max Fried were in the midst of disappointing first halves.

So when Atlanta added outfielders Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, and Adam Duvall at the deadline, with just an 11.9% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, the team appeared to be closer to dead in the water than eventual World Series champions.

Of course, we all know how that season turned out. The Braves went 37-19 in the second half, capitalizing on a rough finish by the Mets to claim the NL East crown before knocking off the Milwaukee Brewers, 106-win Los Angeles Dodgers, and Houston Astros to win their first championship since 1995.

Fast forward to 2024, and the Braves have used that World Series title to springboard themselves into becoming a dynastic force. In 2022 and 2023, Atlanta won 205 total games and — despite some disappointing postseason exits — entered this season set to continue its reign of dominance.

And that’s just what happened, at least through the first three months of the season. The Braves began the year as a clear-cut playoff team, maintaining postseason odds north of 90% into July.

But after a six-game losing streak almost immediately out of the All-Star break, and another six-game skid from Aug. 3 to 9, Atlanta looks its most vulnerable since that vaunted 2021 campaign.

After Monday’s extra-inning win over the San Francisco Giants, the Braves’ playoff odds stand at 67.9% as they hold down the third NL Wild Card spot —just two games ahead of the Mets and less than five games ahead of four other clubs.

This year’s Braves have lost Acuňa to a torn ACL, lost ace Spencer Strider to a torn UCL, and have seen key contributors Fried, Sean Murphy, Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies, and A.J. Minter all spend time on the injured list.

In general manager Alex Anthopoulos’ search to rectify some of Atlanta’s struggles, he has turned to some familiar faces that helped the Braves bring home some hardware in 2021.

In early July, they re-signed Eddie Rosario on a minor league contract after he had been released by the Washington Nationals and at the deadline, Anthopoulos shipped Tyler Matzek and Sabin Ceballos to the San Francisco Giants for Luke Jackson and Jorge Soler.

Now, Rosario has already been let go by Atlanta, so there’s no hope of him reclaiming his 2021 NLCS MVP form in a potential playoff run, but Soler, the Braves’ World Series MVP, has looked excellent in his return.

But as we rapidly approach October, the Braves only have so much runway to recapture the magic that spurred their run to the World Series just three autumns ago. With just 44 games remaining in the season, here is the case for and against this Atlanta team finding lightning in a bottle once again.

All stats courtesy FanGraphs and from before play on Aug. 13.

Why the Braves can win the 2024 World Series

Over the past two seasons, the Braves have used historic offensive production to fuel their trips to the playoffs. Between 2022 and 2023, Atlanta led all of MLB in home runs, batting average, slugging percentage, isolated power, hard-hit rate, and OPS while finishing second in runs scored and on-base percentage.

But in 2024, the Braves’ success has come on the back of their pitching staff.

Atlanta’s offense ranks 17th in baseball with a 98 wRC+ and 20th in runs scored. Meanwhile, Braves pitchers rank third in ERA (3.75), first in strikeout rate (25.5%) and second in homers per nine (0.98).

Additionally, their bullpen has recorded the fewest meltdowns in baseball, helping the team maintain leads late in games.

Chris Sale has pitched like a Cy Young candidate in his first season with the Braves, Fried has continued to be a stabilizing force, Lopez has the lowest ERA of any pitcher to throw 100 innings this season, Charlie Morton has been solid enough, and Spencer Schwellenbach has seemed to turn the corner since the All-Star Break.

With those five set to carry the load down the stretch and into a potential Wild Card series, Atlanta should be thrilled with where its pitching is at as long as it can hold onto a playoff spot.

If there’s a time for the bats to find their groove, the final month and a half is it. And luckily for the Braves, some of their All-Star caliber hitters appear to be heating up.

Now, of course, the table above comes with the caveat that the second half has only been 23 games for Atlanta, but the results have been encouraging regardless.

Atlanta should be getting a boost in the coming weeks, as well. Harris II is set to make his long-awaited return from the injured list this week, Albies should be back by mid-September, and Lopez is scheduled to make a rehab start on Aug. 13 as he works back from a short IL stint.

As far as earning a spot in the playoffs, the Braves have one of the easiest remaining schedules in baseball, according to FanGraphs, and with series remaining against the Giants and Mets, Atlanta will likely get to determine its own fate.

If the Braves stars can be stars down the stretch — something the team has been waiting for nearly all season — and their pitching can continue to perform among MLB’s best, Atlanta could enter the postseason as the team no one wants to face.

All the pieces are in place for another postseason run, even without Acuña. Atlanta can absolutely win the World Series if everything comes together at the right time.

Why the Braves can’t win the 2024 World Series

A team that loses its best player and top starter isn’t supposed to win the World Series.

The fact there is even a conversation about Atlanta doing that twice is a testament to the organizational depth they’ve built around the likes of Acuña and Strider.

However, as the Braves continue to battle injury issues and underperformance, it’s fair to question if it’s just not meant to be for them this season.

As we mentioned the offensive improvement above, the pitching has taken a step back in the second half, as well, contributing to the 9-14 start out of the break.

While Atlanta’s pitchers have racked up the most second-half strikeouts in MLB, they have also allowed the fifth-most earned runs. Sale and Schwellenbach have been fantastic, but Fried, Morton, and Bryce Elder all have ERAs above 6.75.

Looking ahead to a potential postseason, if the Braves get healthy at the right time, they will be able to run out Sale, Fried, and Lopez in a Wild Card series. But as they’ve fallen behind the NL Wild Card leaders, it seems increasingly likely that they will have to go on the road and beat either the San Diego Padres or Arizona Diamondbacks to earn a spot in the NLDS.

Not only is that a tall task if they do clinch a playoff spot, but even though the Braves have an easier schedule on paper, they still have to hold off the other teams in the congested Wild Card picture.

And with those aforementioned series against the Mets and Giants, that provides both clubs an opportunity to directly gain ground on Atlanta.

So, as the offense continues to work back to world-beater status and the rotation looks to bounce back to its top form, there isn’t a lot of time for everything to sort itself out amid a season that started out promising but has increasingly lost its luster over the course of 118 games.

The case against Atlanta isn’t rooted in anything based on its roster construction, but rather in the fact that so much has gone wrong for this club this season.

And while the Braves are still holding on, they would need much of their luck to flip if they hope to find themselves back where they were in 2021, celebrating as World Series champions.